BRAC’s Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) model is one of the few anti-poverty approaches that have been found successful in reducing extreme poverty consistently across many contexts. In recent years, BRAC has introduced several changes to its graduation model, considering the consistent economic growth in Bangladesh. With Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) as a technical partner, BIGD is studying the effectiveness of the new, scalable UPG model and the marginal impact of the modified components. The study results will be useful in optimizing the UPG model to become a high-impact and scalable intervention.
Researchers: Hossein Alidaee; Dr Jessica Goldberg; Dr Dean Karlan; Dr Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Dr Christopher R. Udry; Dr Narayan C. Das
Partners: BRAC; Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA)
Timeline: 2018 – 2022
Status: Completed
Contact: Dr Narayan C. Das; narayan.das@bracu.ac.bd
Context
In Bangladesh, BRAC’s ultra-poor graduation (UPG) program—formerly known as the targeting the ultra-poor (TUP) program—has served 2 million ultra-poor households since 2002 and the model has been replicated in 43 countries. Yet, an estimated 10% of the world’s population lives in extreme poverty; in Bangladesh, about 20 million people are extreme poor. BRAC’s UPG program can potentially play a crucial role in lifting these people out of poverty.
Over the last decade, the economy of Bangladesh has been steadily growing, which also has a positive impact on the poorest. Thus, to reduce aid dependency, create a sense of ownership of the asset received, and provide better quality assets, UPGP’s current package replaces 1) the full asset grant with a combination of partial grant and interest-free loan and 2) the consumption support with a matched savings account. Proven effective, the scalable new model could have a crucial contribution to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 1—ending poverty in all its forms everywhere.
BIGD, with technical support from Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), is conducting a randomized control trial (RCT) to assess the impact of the new graduation model. Alongside, the study will assess the impact of the program components of interest to help organizations design the right program in their context.
This study is relevant to SDG 1 (no poverty), particularly to ending poverty in all its forms everywhere.
Research Questions
This evaluation seeks to answer four research questions:
Methodology
We are conducting a multi-armed RCT with 50,000 ultra-poor households in randomly selected 100 BRAC branches in 37 districts across Bangladesh.
As shown in the figure above, we compare T1 (eligible households receiving the regular program) to PC (eligible households in control villages with no program) to measure the overall impact of the current UPG model as well as financial inclusion. We compare eligible households in PC to those in SC (eligible households in the regular program villages that did not receive any program) to measure spillover effects. We compare households in T1 to those in T3 (eligible households receiving the modified program without messaging about how much they should save) to measure the impact of savings match. We compare T2 (eligible households receiving the modified program with messaging on the importance of saving along with the suggested amount of savings) to those in T3 to assess the impact of messaging about how much they should save.
We are collecting data digitally in two rounds using a survey questionnaire on a range of outcome variables, such as housing, business activities; seasonality of earnings and business plan of ultra-poor women; landholdings; business and non-business assets; financial assets, savings behaviour and motivation, remittance, empowerment, vulnerability, and food security.
Findings and Recommendations
Study ongoing.
