This research draws on phase one of the Capital Journey study of BRAC’s UPG program, integrating individual and meso-level analysis to examine the sustained borrowing, dropout, re-entry, and resilience of ultra-poor households.
Researchers: Munshi Sulaiman; Atiya Rahman; Sheikh Arman Tamim; Raisa Adiba
Partners: BRAC; BRAC International; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Timeline: 2025-2026
Status: Ongoing
Contact: Raisa Adiba; raisa.adiba@bracu.ac.bd
Context
Over the past 25 years, BRAC’s UPG program has supported ultra-poor households through assets, cash, and services. Although most graduates are introduced to microfinance, their post-graduation financial pathways remain diverse, non-linear, and poorly documented over the long term. Existing evidence focuses largely on early uptake, offering limited insight into sustained borrowing, dropout, re-entry, and resilience. Phase I of the Capital Journey study revealed both the potential and limits of administrative data alone, motivating Phase II to integrate individual-level and meso-level analysis.
Objective
The purpose of the study is to trace the long-term financial trajectories of women who graduated from BRAC’s UPG program, examining how they engage with microfinance, savings, and other capital pathways over two decades, and how shocks, institutions, and context shape these journeys.
Methodology
Phase II employs a mixed-methods, longitudinal design, combining a large-scale survey of 4,400 female UPG graduates (2002–2023) with qualitative in-depth studies among high performers, stagnators, and dropouts. The study overlays financial trajectories with shocks, climate vulnerability, and institutional factors. A comparative component examines the transferability of findings from Bangladesh to Uganda.
Findings and Recommendations
Forthcoming.
