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Graduation Through Credit? Long-Run Impacts of a Hybrid Ultra-Poor Graduation Programme in Bangladesh

This paper evaluates the long-term impacts of BRAC’s Other Targeting the Ultra Poor (OTUP) model in Bangladesh, a multifaceted intervention that combines subsidized credit with a consumption allowance, enterprise training, and social and health support. Using a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of 8,973 households across 88 branch areas, we assessed outcomes seven years after program implementation. Our findings indicate that the program has persistent, positive effects on household asset accumulation and savings. Furthermore, it enhances human capital investments, leading to increased healthcare utilization among treatment women and improved educational outcomes, particularly for girls’ secondary school enrollment. However, these household-level gains do not translate into significant impacts on women’s individual earnings or empowerment, suggesting a limited conversion of household resources into personal agency. The high benefit-cost ratio from our analysis suggests that the credit-based graduation model could be an effective poverty reduction strategy for the marginally better-off ultra-poor. This trial was prospectively registered in the AEA RCT Registry (AEARCTR-0013689).

Authors: Ahmed, Shaila; Hossain, Marjan; Hossain, Muhammad Towkir; Rahman, Atiya; and Sulaiman, Munshi
Type: Journal Article
Publisher: VeriXiv
Year: 2025

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