Publications

Graduation Through Credit? Long-Run Impacts of a Hybrid Ultra-Poor Graduation Program in Bangladesh

This study evaluates the long-run impacts of BRAC’s Other Targeting the Ultra Poor (OTUP) program, a hybrid intervention that combines conditional microcredit for productive asset acquisition with a consumption allowance, enterprise training, and social and health support. Designed for households that are too poor to access conventional microfinance yet ineligible for grant-based Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) programming, the model addresses a persistent coverage gap in anti-poverty targeting. Using a randomized controlled trial across 88 BRAC branch offices in 11 districts of Bangladesh, this study employs intent-to-treat estimation and a difference-in-differences specification across three survey rounds to assess outcomes seven years after implementation. Findings indicate sustained gains in productive assets, savings, and dietary quality, alongside significantly improved healthcare utilization and adolescent school enrollment, particularly for girls. However, income and consumption gains observed at first follow-up fully dissipated by the seven-year mark, and the program generated no significant improvements in women’s decision-making autonomy or child nutrition outcomes. The hybrid model yields a benefit-cost ratio of 5.30 over a 20-year horizon, outperforming the grant-based UPG on cost-efficiency, though population heterogeneity warrants caution in direct comparisons. The study concludes that the hybrid model is a scalable and cost-effective option for moderately deprived households, but must be complemented by gender-focused programming, social protection linkages, and nutrition interventions to achieve sustained, equitable welfare improvements.

Authors: Ahmed, Shaila; Hossain, Marjan; Hossain, Muhammad Towkir; Rahman, Atiya; and Sulaiman, Munshi
Type: Evidence and Insights
Publisher: BIGD
Year: 2026

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