Dr Imran Matin, Executive Director of BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), BRAC University recently presented the key findings, lessons and insights based on research conducted jointly with Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex.
The study took place over the course of 18 months and 4 rounds of surveys. This allowed the research team to analyse the earlier effects of lockdown and also the recovery period. The first finding of the study indicated that the average income of urban slum dwellers fell below the average income of rural average income during the initial period of 2020. The effect was also felt among non-poor and moderate poor people as their income also succumbed to the levels of extreme poor which is a wrong kind of convergence. Moreover, the findings also looked at 5 rounds of data (2 of them pre-COVID and 3 of them during COVID) and indicated a significant fall in predicted income among females in urban to rural areas. The study also found that the non-food expenditure almost doubled for urban slum dwellers from June 2020 to August 2021. However, the urban slum dwellers received some relief packages during this period but the numbers are not very impressive. Furthermore, savings have depleted among poor people and they sought more loans during the lockdown period which resulted in growing debt. Due to the financial crisis faced by the poor people, school-going children had to engage in income-generating-activities. In addition, It is typical in a growth period to see people migrating from rural areas to urban areas. However, the COVID period has seen the reversal of this norm as 28% of the people migrated from urban areas to rural areas. During this COVID period, the country has also seen the rise of new poor who were previously vulnerable non-poor. The survey also reported that vulnerable people have concerns about loan repayment, food inflation, healthcare availability and so on.
The five highlighted areas of the study were i) disrupted recovery ii) transient or emerging poverty traps iii) distress resilience iv) disproportionate impact on urban household continue v) the new sociology of reverse migrants. After presenting the study, Imran Matin answered numerous questions from the participants.
