As part of BIGD’s Rapid Research Response 2024, a telephone survey was conducted among 2,363 people from all 64 districts of the country from August 22 to September 3, 2024, to provide real-time insights about citizens’ perceptions and expectations from the interim government. The survey also provides insights into the public endorsement of the current government. The male-to-female ratio is 57:43, while 67% of the respondents were from the rural population and 33% were from the urban population.
Citizen Perceptions, Expectations, and Experiences
Considering the rapidly evolving and dynamic political situation, it is important to regularly gauge public sentiment, track citizen’s expectations, and understand their experiences as they unfold, with broader disaggregation by gender, age, location, and socio-economic background. This real-time feedback should enable the interim government to make informed decisions that align with the needs and priorities of the people.
To that effect, BIGD will conduct an opinion survey over the phone every month from August to December 2024, to provide real-time insights about public endorsement of and expectations from the interim government and generate a useful understanding of the socio-economic impact of the ongoing situation on citizens.
The mood of the nation regarding politics and the economy
Considering the political situation in July-August this year, 71% of the respondents believe that Bangladesh is on the correct path, and 12% believe we are on the wrong path. The findings are in sharp contrast with the findings from The Asia Foundation-BIGD survey in January 2024, when just 43% of people expressed optimism about Bangladesh’s political future, while 41% expressed pessimism. The inflation in political optimism among the public reflected in the August Pulse Survey is most likely based on aspirations from the interim government, rather than being based on their experiences with it.
On a similar question, which asked respondents if they felt Bangladesh was heading in the right or wrong direction economically, 60% said that the country is on the right track, while 27% said it is not. In contrast, only 32% felt optimistic, while 62% felt pessimistic about the economy in January ‘24.
Complex dynamics indicating a polycrisis
In the Pulse Survey, 40% of the respondents said that economic issues (including price hikes, business downturn, etc.) are the biggest problem of the country at present—a sharp decline from January ’24, when 69% noted a similar concern. The Pulse Survey in August reflects concerns about a diversity of concurrent issues in a manner not seen in January ‘24. While the economy is still the predominant issue, 15% of respondents in the August survey said flooding is the country’s biggest problem, 13% mentioned political unrest and intolerance, while 7% said the deterioration of law and order is concerning.
When asked if crime increased in August in comparison to other months (due to the fall of government), 72% said no, and 25% said yes. On a similar question about the relative increase in violence, 75% said no, and 23% said yes.
Verdict on key issues
To understand respondents’ thoughts on key political issues, first, they were asked if they supported the quota-reform movement’s transformation into the one-point demand. An overwhelming majority (83%) said they supported the movement’s transformation, while 10% said that they did not.
On the question of the possible tenure of the interim government, 81% of citizens agreed that the interim government needs enough time to ensure a free and fair election, while 13% agreed that they should declare an election as soon as possible and leave. However, when questioned more specifically about the potential length of the interim government’s tenure, respondents seem to have vastly different opinions: 38% thought the government should stay in power for three or more years, while 24% thought their tenure should be six months or less. Furthermore, 9% of respondents said they would prefer the government hold power between one and two years, and 11% said a maximum of six months to one year.
When asked about their thoughts on banning party-affiliated student politics, 81% of respondents said they support the ban. On a similar question about banning party-affiliated teacher politics, an even larger proportion of respondents (84%) favor a ban. The data are indicative of just how much the public’s mood has soured over the unending cycle of corruption and violence in our educational institutions incited by party-affiliated politics, especially by institutional power. The public feels the necessity to root out the patronage networks that have enabled this corruption and violence for so long.
Expectations from and approval of the Interim Government
Respondents mentioned a range of issues when asked about their first demand from the interim government before the election. The largest group (32%) asked for economic reforms, which included a demand for a price reduction, market regulation, employment generation and other economic reforms; followed by 17% demanding political and electoral reforms; and 12% demanding the rule of law, which includes reform of the law, freeing the judiciary from political control, reforming police and other forces, and constitutional amendments. About 8% also asked to ensure stability and security in the country, and 7% mentioned reducing corruption. Education reforms and seeking justice for past atrocities also came up as reform demands.
When asked how they would rate, between 0 and 100, the reform efforts so far by the current interim government, respondents provided a rating of 75 on average.
The dominant mood right now is optimism
Despite different concerns and worries, 68% of survey respondents feel optimistic about the country’s future, both political and economic, while just 13% feel pessimistic. With the fall of the previous authoritarian regime, the current political climate instills hope for a better future for the country after a long time.
