Agricultural incomes are notoriously seasonal. The bulk of outflows occur at the start of a growing season, and inflows occur at the end of the season. A large body of evidence documents the effects of seasonal liquidity on many aspects of farmer welfare, including nutrition, productive investments, agricultural input use, and labour market participation (Devereux et al. 2013). In areas where formal and informal financial markets are not well developed, farmers find it difficult to smooth consumption over time. As a result, farmers often experience periodic food insecurity in the months most distant from the previous harvest. Fluctuations in average body weight of up to 4 kilograms in between harvests have been long documented among women in Africa and Asia (Ferro-Luzzi and Branca 1993). This period, known as the lean or hunger season, is further intensified during periods of adverse or unpredictable weather and crop failure. In Kenya, where a majority of the rural poor depend on rainfed subsistence farming, 2.8 million report experiencing food insecurity in the lean season. This estimate is expected to increase further with climate change (WFP 2023).
Crop insurance is a risk management tool that can protect vulnerable farmers from the negative consequences of harvest failure and income uncertainty. However, insurance typically provides compensation for damaged crops at the end of the agricultural season, after harvest has occurred. Farmers may find traditional compensation schedules ineffective for a number of reasons – payments are too far in the future for farmers who discount time heavily; later payments could be less useful for farmers who need to make expenses, such as buying inputs or smoothing consumption, in the lean months before harvest; and payment itself is uncertain, which is problematic for farmers who prefer to plan their expenses ahead. Through our study funded by the WEE-DiFine Initiative, we pilot an insurance feature, enabled by recent advancements in crop loss detection and financial technology, that provides farmers with customized compensation timelines. Using models that predict damage at each major growth stage of the crop, and availing mobile money to disburse payouts, this innovation allows farmers to receive timely mid-season payouts in tranches on chosen dates. We in turn study the effects of this innovation on insurance adoption.
We conducted a randomized controlled trial with 1,765 farmers in Kenya in 2023. We offered eligible farmers the opportunity to purchase a standard weather-index based crop insurance policy that disbursed compensation in one payment after harvest, or a modified policy in which farmers could receive compensation in stages at times of their choosing, referred to as “timely-pay insurance.” We measure compensation preferences and willingness-to-pay for the standard and timely-pay policies for all farmers. To express their compensation preferences, farmers were asked to allocate four payout stages, representing losses estimated at the end of four crop growth stages, across six months, as detailed in an earlier blog.[1] Farmers could thus customize when they wanted to receive a payment, and how large (or small) they wanted each payment to be. Additionally, we recorded farmers’ self-reported experience of food insecurity during the same six months. We then randomized the product offered to measure uptake of insurance. Our sample included both men and women, allowing us to observe differences in compensation preferences by gender.
Our data supports past evidence that farmers experience seasonal food insecurity that increases over the length of time from the preceding harvest (Figure 1). The proportion of farmers reporting that their household lacked access to sufficient quantity or quality of food rose from 18.7% in October at the start of the long rains growing season, to 55.47% in March at the end of the season. Overall, 65% of respondents reported experiencing food insecurity at some point during the cropping season. Reporting did not differ systematically between men and women farmers in any month. The vast majority of farmers (86%) wanted to receive insurance compensation in multiple stages rather than through a single transfer. Nearly half (45%) chose to receive compensation in 4 separate transfers, the maximum allowed.

Men were significantly more likely to request smaller and earlier transfers, especially in the first 4 months pre-harvest (Figure 1). Our financial empowerment measures indicated that women were relatively less-empowered and had sole agency over smaller sums of money than men, which we had anticipated would drive them to prefer smaller transfers. However, women were more likely to request later and fewer transfers. Women were also significantly more likely to request for transfers in the last two months of the season (February and March), nearer to the typical harvest period, but also the time of greatest reported food insecurity. In our preliminary results, we find that being less-empowered and experiencing food insecurity increases the likelihood that a farmer will choose to receive fewer and larger transfers and receive payment in the lean months, with the effect stronger amongst women. We also find that willingness-to-pay for the timely-pay insurance is significantly higher than for traditional insurance on average, and particularly among the less-financially empowered. Additionally, the uptake gap between men and women decreases when farmers are offered this novel insurance feature.
Our early findings indicate the potential for mid-season or staggered compensation to improve the impacts of crop insurance among those most vulnerable to climate change, such as women and financially less-empowered smallholders. We look forward to sharing our final results in the near future.


References
Devereux, S., Sabates-Wheeler, R., & Longhurst, R. (Eds.). (2013). Seasonality, Rural Livelihoods and Development. Routledge.
Ferro-Luzzi, A., and F. Branca. 1993. “Nutritional Seasonality: The Dimensions of the Problem.” In Seasonality and Human Ecology, edited by S. J. Ulijaszek and S. S. Strickland, 149–165. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
WFP (2023) Kenya Annual Country Report 2023. World Food Programme URL: https://www.wfp.org/operations/annual-country-report?operation_id=KE02&year=2023#/26567, accessed September 2024